Abstract
The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis nevertheless possible. We apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. We demonstrate that the battle’s outcome was highly unlikely, with significant implications both for subsequent actions and for historical understanding. Dogger Bank exemplifies our view that Bayesian methods offer historians the tool they need to grapple with the evolving probabilities of historical events, giving a sound scientific basis for counterfactual history, and opening up a wealth of possibilities for analysis.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 80-91 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| Early online date | 31 Mar 2016 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2 Apr 2016 |
Bibliographical note
This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details. Embargo period: 18 monthsKeywords
- Battle of the Dogger Bank
- approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)
- combat modeling
- military simulation
- naval warfare
