Yet more on a stochastic economic model: Supplement to Part 4: A model for share earnings, dividends and prices

TY - JOUR

T1 - Yet more on a stochastic economic model

T2 - Supplement to Part 4: A model for share earnings, dividends and prices

AU - Wilkie, A. D.

AU - Şahin, Şule

PY - 2020/3/1

Y1 - 2020/3/1

N2 - In this paper, we revisit the Earnings, Cover (the ratio of earnings over dividends) and Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio models which we introduced in Part 4 of this series. Although we suggested that the significant decline in the Earnings Index over 2015-2016 might be followed by dividends and share prices, this has not happened. Instead, Earnings have risen substantially over the years 2016 to 2018. Therefore, we revise our models based on the updated data and compare the new set of models with the one in Part 4 as well as with themselves. We then compare different methods for forecasting Dividends and Share Prices.

AB - In this paper, we revisit the Earnings, Cover (the ratio of earnings over dividends) and Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio models which we introduced in Part 4 of this series. Although we suggested that the significant decline in the Earnings Index over 2015-2016 might be followed by dividends and share prices, this has not happened. Instead, Earnings have risen substantially over the years 2016 to 2018. Therefore, we revise our models based on the updated data and compare the new set of models with the one in Part 4 as well as with themselves. We then compare different methods for forecasting Dividends and Share Prices.

KW - Cover

KW - Dividends

KW - Earnings

KW - P/E ratios

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85071913836&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S1748499519000095

DO - 10.1017/S1748499519000095

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85071913836

SN - 1748-4995

VL - 14

SP - 138

EP - 149

JO - Annals of Actuarial Science

JF - Annals of Actuarial Science

IS - 1

ER -