Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict: Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

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Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict : Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. / Flückiger, Matthias; Ludwig, Markus.

In: Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 62, No. 9, 07.05.2017, p. 1932-1962.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

Flückiger, M & Ludwig, M 2017, 'Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict: Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa', Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 62, no. 9, pp. 1932-1962. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707303

APA

Flückiger, M., & Ludwig, M. (2017). Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict: Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(9), 1932-1962. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707303

Vancouver

Flückiger M, Ludwig M. Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict: Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2017 May 7;62(9):1932-1962. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717707303

Author

Flückiger, Matthias ; Ludwig, Markus. / Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict : Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. In: Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2017 ; Vol. 62, No. 9. pp. 1932-1962.

Bibtex - Download

@article{fcea9fbe9de5442b84f9a58eaab4b4e6,
title = "Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict: Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa",
abstract = "The presence of an exceptionally large youth population, that is, a youth bulge, is often associated with an elevated risk of civil conflict. In this article, we develop an instrumental variable approach in which the size of the youth cohorts in Sub-Saharan Africa is identified using variation in birth-year drought incidence. Our results show that an increase in the size of the population group aged fifteen to nineteen raises the risk of low-intensity conflict. A 1 percent increase in the size of this age-group augments the likelihood of civil conflict incidence (onset) by 2.3 (1.2) percentage points. On the other hand, we do not find any association between the size of the two adjacent youth cohorts, that is, the population groups aged ten to fourteen and twenty to twenty-four.",
keywords = "civil conflict, drought, instrumental variable regression, youth bulge",
author = "Matthias Fl{\"u}ckiger and Markus Ludwig",
year = "2017",
month = may,
day = "7",
doi = "10.1177/0022002717707303",
language = "English",
volume = "62",
pages = "1932--1962",
journal = "Journal of Conflict Resolution",
issn = "0022-0027",
publisher = "SAGE Publications Inc.",
number = "9",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Youth Bulges and Civil Conflict

T2 - Causal Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

AU - Flückiger, Matthias

AU - Ludwig, Markus

PY - 2017/5/7

Y1 - 2017/5/7

N2 - The presence of an exceptionally large youth population, that is, a youth bulge, is often associated with an elevated risk of civil conflict. In this article, we develop an instrumental variable approach in which the size of the youth cohorts in Sub-Saharan Africa is identified using variation in birth-year drought incidence. Our results show that an increase in the size of the population group aged fifteen to nineteen raises the risk of low-intensity conflict. A 1 percent increase in the size of this age-group augments the likelihood of civil conflict incidence (onset) by 2.3 (1.2) percentage points. On the other hand, we do not find any association between the size of the two adjacent youth cohorts, that is, the population groups aged ten to fourteen and twenty to twenty-four.

AB - The presence of an exceptionally large youth population, that is, a youth bulge, is often associated with an elevated risk of civil conflict. In this article, we develop an instrumental variable approach in which the size of the youth cohorts in Sub-Saharan Africa is identified using variation in birth-year drought incidence. Our results show that an increase in the size of the population group aged fifteen to nineteen raises the risk of low-intensity conflict. A 1 percent increase in the size of this age-group augments the likelihood of civil conflict incidence (onset) by 2.3 (1.2) percentage points. On the other hand, we do not find any association between the size of the two adjacent youth cohorts, that is, the population groups aged ten to fourteen and twenty to twenty-four.

KW - civil conflict

KW - drought

KW - instrumental variable regression

KW - youth bulge

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85042195181&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1177/0022002717707303

DO - 10.1177/0022002717707303

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85042195181

VL - 62

SP - 1932

EP - 1962

JO - Journal of Conflict Resolution

JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution

SN - 0022-0027

IS - 9

ER -